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01 May, 2025
Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025
Mon 21 Apr, 2025
Context:
The World Trade Organization (WTO) released its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025, presenting a cautious picture of the global trade scenario. As per the report, global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, amid escalating tariff tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and weakening global demand.
Key Highlights from the WTO Outlook
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (Projected) |
| Global merchandise trade growth | +2.9% | –0.2% |
| Potential decline under tariff shocks | – | –1.5% |
| Global services trade growth | +6.8% | +4.0% |
| North America exports | +3.5% | –12.6% |
| Asia’s exports | +2.4% | +1.6% |
| Europe’s exports | +1.7% | +1.0% |
| LDCs vulnerability | High | Very High |
Factors Contributing to Decline in Trade:
1. Trade Tensions: Escalation of tariff measures, especially between USA and China, will reduce global trade output significantly.
- Reactivation of US reciprocal tariffs alone could cut global trade by 0.6 percentage points.
- Additional US-China tensions may further reduce trade by 0.8 percentage points.
2. Geopolitical Fragmentation: Increasing geo-economic confrontation is leading to economic fragmentation, affecting both investment and supply chains.
3. Sectoral Effects:
- Transport & travel services will decline due to fall in merchandise trade.
- Investment-related services are expected to weaken amid economic uncertainty.
India’s Position in Global Trade (2024 data):
| Category | Global Rank | Share in Global Trade |
| Merchandise Exports | 14th | 2.2% |
| Merchandise Imports | 7th | 3.4% |
| Commercial Services Exports | 6th | 5.3% (↓ from 5.4%) |
| Commercial Services Imports | 6th | 4.1% (↓ from 4.2%) |
Observation: While ranks have dipped marginally, India’s share in global trade remains stable — reflecting resilience despite global headwinds.
Opportunities for India & LDCs:
- With US-China trade disruptions, there is potential trade diversion:
-
- China’s exports may rise in markets beyond North America (by 4–9%).
- India and LDCs can seize this opportunity to capture market share in global value chains.
- India’s focus on FTAs, production-linked incentives (PLI), and Make in India can support export competitiveness.
UNCTAD’s Global Economic Outlook:
- Global GDP growth forecast for 2025: 2.3%
- Developing economies face higher vulnerability due to:
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- Rising interest rates
- Depreciating currencies
- Export dependence
- Urges for greater regional & international policy coordination.
About UNCTAD
| Parameter | Details |
| Full Form | United Nations Conference on Trade and Development |
| Formed | 1964 |
| HQ | Geneva, Switzerland |
| Parent Body | United Nations General Assembly |
| Key Reports Published | Trade & Development Report, World Investment Report, Technology and Innovation Report, Commodities and Development Report |
| Members | 195 Countries |
| Current Secretary-General | Rebeca Grynspan (as of 2025) |